Key Highlights:
- Japan’s potato chips market projected at 505K tons by 2035.
- Market value expected to rise to $7B with mild annual growth.
- Imports mainly from China; exports led by Hong Kong and Taiwan.
- 2024 saw drop in production, consumption and exports.
Japan’s potato chips market is showing slow but consistent growth after recent setbacks in output and demand. According to new forecasts, market volume is expected to reach 505,000 tons and value to touch $7 billion by 2035. Despite dip in 2024, experts believe consumption will gradually climb in coming decade as local demand and retail recovery strengthen.
In 2024, both consumption and production dropped, falling to 474,000 tons and 466,000 tons respectively. Imports totaled 8,900 tons, mostly supplied by China, while exports declined sharply to about 1,000 tons.
Although short term figures are weak, analysts expect a moderate rebound. Over 2024-2035, Japan’s potato chips market is projected to grow at an annual rate of about 0.6% by volume and 0.9% by value.
Also read: Top 10 Potato Producing Countries in the World (2025)
Consumption fell by 4.4% in 2024, continuing a downward trend seen since 2023. The market’s last strong year was 2022 when consumption briefly rose 5%, reaching 529,000 tons. Since then weaker retail demand and high production costs have slowed the category.
The market’s total revenue fell to $6.4 billion in 2024, down 1.8% from the previous year. While nearly every household in Japan buys potato snacks, the growth rate has flattened as consumer spending patterns shift.
Production also contracted, dropping by 4.6% from 2023 to reach 466,000 tons. The decline reflects tighter margins for manufacturers and fluctuating raw potato availability. The peak was seen in 2022 at 520,000 tons.
In value terms, output was estimated at $6.2 billion in 2024. Production has been moving sideways since 2017, with short bursts of growth followed by cooling periods.
Japan imported around 8,900 tons of potato chips in 2024, up 2.7% year on year, worth roughly $38 million. Imports have remained constant overall, though below 2022 peak of 11,000 tons.
China remains Japan’s largest supplier, providing more than half of all imported chips. The Netherlands and the United States follow, with smaller shares. In value, China accounts for about 33% of Japan’s import bill followed by the U.S. and Spain.
The average import price fell to $4,323 per ton in 2024, down 2.6% from 2023. Prices vary widely, chips from the UAE are the most expensive, while Chinese products are the cheapest.
Exports from Japan dropped 32% to just over 1,000 tons in 2024. Shipments mainly go to Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and the United States, which together take up about three quarters of Japan’s export volume.
The total export value was about $13 million, down sharply from $25 million in 2021. The average export price rose slightly to $13,126 per ton, suggesting exporters are focusing on premium markets despite lower volumes.
Also read: Global Potato Market Faces Supply Gluts, Weather Shocks and Falling Prices
Analysts expect a gradual rebound over the next decade, driven by stable domestic demand and continued innovation in flavor and packaging. With consumption forecast to grow 0.6% annually and value up 0.9%, Japan’s market could reach 505,000 tons and $7 billion by 2035.
The growing popularity of local ingredients, smaller pack sizes and low-oil recipes is expected to support moderate growth in the years ahead.
Japan’s potato chips market is entering a slow recovery phase after two years of decline. Despite weaker exports and higher input costs, long-term trends point to consistent, sustainable growth through 2035, supported by resilient consumer demand and a stable retail sector.
Sources: Indexbox
Image credit: Mayu Yamamura on Unsplash
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